UFC Fight Night returns to the APEX Center for UFC Vegas 76 this weekend.
We are in a stretch where there’s fight every weekend, ripe for betting and wagering –– this is, after all, the best sport to bet on.
Sure, the golfers and NFL fans would argue otherwise, but those sports have an off-season.
There are ongoing fights all year long.
Over the past two weeks, we are 8-3-1 (72.3 percent), including a +190 hit on David Onama last week.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling at UFC Vegas 76 this weekend.
UFC Fight Night Vegas 76
Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov prediction
Abus Magomedov is a relative unknown to UFC fans, and Sean Strickland may be surprised by how strong his opponent is at striking.
Magomedov will also feature the grappling upside in this matchup, but the genuine concern here is cardio.
Strickland has weaponized his pace and cardio to the point that most fighters wind up losing by decision, wilting in rounds three, four, and five.
Magomedov would be a clear bet in a three-round fight at his +128 price, but five rounds are slightly worrisome based on cardio worries.
Grappling upside could be the way for Magomedov, but Strickland has very good at takedown defense.
If Strickland was more of a kicker, Strickland would be in a better position to deal with Magomedov’s range.
But he’s not, and that jab that he lives on isn’t very useful if you’re against the cage or on your back.
Three wagers for this fight to mix up liability, but if Magomedov’s cardio is improved at all he should be the side for betting purposes.
.75 unit on fight goes to decision +112 (BetRivers), a half unit on Magomedov moneyline +128 (FanDuel), and .25 units on Magomedov by decision +550 (WynnBet).
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales
Two heavy hitters in this welterweight matchup.
Max “Pain” Griffin was once considered a top prospect at 170lbs but that has mostly fallen by the wayside thanks to some cardio questions.
But his punching power is significant and should be up to the test against a rising prospect in Morales.
Morales is one of the better strikers in the division but Griffin could also be the stronger grappler.
Griffin’s price of +210 is pretty disrespectful, and worthy of a bet this weekend.
He won’t close above +200 so get it while it’s hot.
Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto
An auto-bet here as two women square up at the women’s flyweight division.
125lb. women’s fights go to decision 82.4 percent of the time, per Fight Matrix.
Two of Lipski’s last two fights went the distance and Gatto’s last fight went to decision is as well.
The best line on fight to go the distance is -110 on Caesars, and that is worth playing up to -125 tonight.
UFC Fight Night Vegas picks
- Magomedov/Strickland goes the distance | Magomedov moneyline | Magomedov by decision
- Max Griffin ML +210 (FanDuel)
- Lipski/Gatto goes the distance -110 (Caesars)