For much of the 19th and 20th centuries, life expectancy both in the U.S. and globally increased at impressive rates. Globally, life expectancy increased from age 39 in 1860 to 69 just 100 years later.
In the late 20th century, life expectancy increased, but not at the same rates seen in the late 1800s and early 1900s. But so far in the 21st century, life expectancies haven’t gone up significantly.
Have we reached a point where humans won’t live longer?
New research led by University of Illinois-Chicago professor of epidemiology and biostatistics S. Jay Olshansky suggests humans may be nearing a life expectancy limit. That’s despite previous predictions that life expectancy from birth would continue increasing well into the 21st century.
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In 2000, global life expectancy was up to 76. It increased to 78 by 2010 and 2020, but actually fell in 2021 to 77.
“Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine,” said Olshansky. “But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they’re occurring at an accelerated pace, implying that the period of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over.”
Olshansky had previously stated that he believes the ceiling for mankind’s life expectancy is age 85. He argues that the monumental advancements in modern medicine have declined and that advancements nowadays are more incremental in nature.
“Our result overturns the conventional wisdom that the natural longevity endowment for our species is somewhere on the horizon ahead of us — a life expectancy beyond where we are today,” Olshansky said. “Instead, it’s behind us — somewhere in the 30- to 60-year range. We’ve now proven that modern medicine is yielding incrementally smaller improvements in longevity even though medical advances are occurring at breakneck speed.”
The incremental gains in medicine will help more people live to 100, but those people will remain outliers, he said.
Although life expectancy gains are slowing, Olshansky notes improvements to lifestyles, such as an improved diet, can help people live longer.
“This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall,” Olshansky said.
Where U.S. life expectancy stands
U.S. life expectancy at birth increased to 77.5 years as of 2022, which was up from 76.4 in 2021 and 77 in 2020. The average life expectancy in the U.S. before the pandemic was 78.8 years, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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One major reason for the increase in overall life expectancy in 2022 was the sudden decrease in COVID-19-related deaths in 2022 as compared to 2021. There were also improvements in heart disease, cancer, homicide and unintentional injury deaths.
Figures for 2023 should be released later this year.
