HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Hurricane Lowell is now moving on a path that will take it closer to the islands of Kauai County and Oahu.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai and Niihau, which means that hurricane conditions of strong winds and heavy rain are expected.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Oahu. This means that tropical storm conditions, including winds between 39 and 73 miles per hour, are expected in the area within the next 12 hours.
A Tornado Watch is in effect until 4 a.m. Tuesday for the islands of Niihau and Kauai and surrounding waters for tornadoes and waterspouts associated with Lowell.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion as weather conditions deteriorate to the point where it will be dangerous or impossible to do so.
A Hurricane Warning has also been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
At 5 p.m. Monday, Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour. It is now a high-end category 2 hurricane, but winds are still strong enough to cause extensive damage.
It was about 175 miles southwest of Lihue, or 230 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, and was moving to the north-northeast at 18 miles per hour.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 175 miles.
Lowell’s track expected to pass west of Niihau
Lowell is forecast to pass near just west of Niihau late Monday into early Tuesday. With hurricane conditions beginning Monday evening for Niihau and Kauai and tropical storm conditions possible for Oahu.
Lowell is expected to gradually weaken as it moves through increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. However, it will still be a large and powerful hurricane when it makes its closest pass to the main Hawaiian Islands.
Lowell is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest and slow down by Tuesday night, after it passes Hawaii.
Local alerts issued for Hawaii
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Niihau and Kauai.
A Tornado Watch is also in effect for the islands of Niihau, Kauai and surrounding waters. The threat of short-lived, fast-moving tornados/waterspouts will be present. Any tornadoes would likely be embedded in rainbands.
The threat for tornadoes is lower near the remaining islands, but not zero. The threat for tornadoes should decrease quickly early Tuesday morning.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, as well as Hawaiian offshore waters 40 to 250 nautical miles from coastlines.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Oahu.
A Flood Watch is in effect for all Hawaiian Islands through Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain will be possible along the eastern flank of Lowell.
High Surf Warnings have been issued for the south-facing shores of all islands through 6 a.m. Tuesday.
- Kauai and Niihau: Surf of 7 to 10 feet through Monday morning, rapidly building to 20 to 30 feet Monday afternoon and evening.
- Oahu: Surf of 7 to 10 feet through Monday morning, rising rapidly to 12 to 20 feet Monday afternoon and evening.
- Maui County and Hawaii Island: Surf of 7 to 10 feet Monday morning, rising rapidly to 12 to 16 feet.
A High Surf Warning is also posted for the west shores of Hawaii Island. Surf of 6 to 8 feet is forecast through Monday morning, rapidly building Monday afternoon and evening to 12 to 16 feet.
A High Surf Advisory has also been issued for the east-facing shores of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Hawaii Island for waves of 7 to 10 feet through Monday.
Potential impacts into the weekend
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Monday evening for Niihau and Kauai. Hurricane conditions are possible in in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.
RAIN: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 16 inches possible. For Hawaii Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Oahu and Maui Maui County, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected with isolated totals of 10 inches possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of Hawaii Island.
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes WILL possible near Kauai and Niihau Monday afternoon through Monday night. A few tornadoes are also possible across the rest of the Hawaiian Islands.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Kauai County: 2-4 ft, with the highest inundation on Kauai’s south shores and all shores of Niihau.
- Oahu: Up to 1 ft.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands.
Karina now a post-tropical cyclone
Meanwhile, Karina is rapidly weakening and is now a post-tropical cyclone northeast of Hawaii. Karina’s remnants are expect to dissipate in the next day or two.
This continues to be an active hurricane season. Have a hurricane plan and supply kit in place for this weekend. Now is the time to make a plan for a worst-case scenario so you can take action if and when needed.
Your First Alert Weather Team will continue to monitor both systems closely over the next several days.
Data provided by the National Hurricane Center.
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